Professor of International Studies at SUNY Potsdam Michael Popovic spent much of his childhood in Croatia, bordering Bosnia-Herzegovina during the Bosnian war in the 1990’s and recalled incidents like the phone line being cut out by a grenade explosion during a call with his aunt. He sees the potential for another conflict brewing due to the actions of Republic of Srpska President Milorad Dodik who seeks to break the tripartite Presidency in Bosnia by separating the country’s military, tax and judicial system.
“Nothing has changed. The compromise that ended the war in the 90s did not fundamentally fix the underlying issues and not enough was done in order to promote contact between the different people, appreciation of each other’s history and role in the region,” said Popovic. Popovoic also commented on the modern-day parallels, “The political leadership is still willing to use nationalism and hatred as a tool for achieving their goals. I see a lot of parallels, how it is unfolding is different so far. The themes and problems are certainly the same.”
Most importantly, Popovic fears the same mistakes will be made by the international community. “The track record of the international community when it comes to this conflict is less than stellar. They wanted to allow the fighting to play its way out to the end in the previous conflict. The U.N should intervene, but they will probably not…We have issues like the mandate of the high commission for Bosnia not being renewed and Russia doesn’t seem to be interested in having that person play a role in Bosnian politics which is what the Serbian leadership would like to see,” said Popovic.
Serbian St. Lawrence University student Stefan Dragecivic has interpreted the threats of secession as empty ones. “It is impossible for there to be another conflict. People will realize they are being manipulated by nationalists; you can’t find people who are willing to fight that war. If that conflict happens, it will last for 7 days maximum because of sanctions from Western countries. It’s just a story Dodik uses to manipulate people,” said Dragecivic.
Stefan noted Serbians in Bosnia value the independence of The Republic of Srpska and are afraid of losing that independence. “Whenever you mention the independence of that region, then those Serbs get afraid and do whatever they can to protect the land they fought for. The President of the Republic of Sprksa, Dodik, causes tensions whenever there is an election. For this particular situation their election is happening next April and there is one serious candidate who could actually beat Dodik,” reasoned Dragecivic.
Associate Dean Elun Gabriel sees the differences in Bosnia being reinforced by the system and its leaders. “It is not clear that a harmonious multiethnic society has been cultivated. Locking in different ethno-religious identities from a power sharing standpoint was not helpful in undermining ideas of ethno-religious solidarity; that tends to reinforce the differences among social groups,” argued Gabriel. Gabriel does see this situation as not one to be taken lightly, “In particular the language of the Bosnian Serb faction and the nationalists within that group are reminiscent and self-consciously so of Bosnian Serb leaders during the breakup of Yugoslavia. I think people should be taking the threats of secession seriously and the potential for violence is quite real.”
Bosnia’s war took place between 1992-1995 with the breakup of Yugoslavia and Bosnia’s declaration as an independent republic. The country soon splintered when Bosnian Serbs militarized and set off a conflict where 101,000 people would die, and NATO forces were forced to intervene because of ethnic cleansing. Currently the Government consists of two entities, The Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina and The Republika Srpska. Two Presidents are elected from The Federation and one from The Republika. Milorad Dodik, the Serbian President, wants complete autonomy for The Republika Srpska, and to separate its courts and military that are connected with The Federation.