The 2010 midterms saw a major shift in the political control of the United States. The country decided collectively to see out a republican (GOP) controlled house just two years after the election of President Obama and of a democrat (dem) controlled house. Just two months ago many prominent political analysts would’ve predicted that the 2022 midterms were trending in a similar direction, and that the republicans would not only make up the nine seat difference between them and the Democrats. However recent polls and results from special elections in key districts like NY-19 point towards a much different trend.
NY-19 was a key seat the GOP expected to pick up before midterms. NY-19 was forced into the national spotlight after the resignation of Rep. Antonio Delgado who went on to become Lieutenant Governor under the Hochul administration. The seat was left vacant and thus a special election was required to make sure that the district had representation during the months leading up to the midterm elections and when the new congress is sworn in January. GOP candidate Marc Molinaro and Dem candidate Pat Ryan decided to run for the seat and it was a common prediction that
Molinaro would carry the district and flip the seat for the GOP. However, this was not the result. The GOP was banking on this seat to flip as a way to test the waters and see whether or not the predicted trends would in fact come to fruition. However, Ryan narrowly snuck by Molinaro and in the process picked up a key seat for the Dems looking to maintain their narrow majority in the house. While this seat is still up for grabs in the November elections the Dem special election win speaks for what the results may look like in just a few short months with a very similar electorate.
The GOP is still poised to take back the House. In fact, so much so that according to FiveThirtyEight polls. Republicans won the house in 71% of their over forty thou- sand simulations. The key thing to recognize regarding the predictions is that the GOP is no longer predicted to pick up the massive margins that they were originally expected to. Some of the higher original polls saw the GOP taking majorities as large as 267 of 435 (FiveThirtyEight Poll). But more recent polls see the Republicans taking much slimmer majorities in the 225 to 235 range.
In my opinion, the GOP has put far too much faith into the predictions that tied this upcoming cycle to the record breaking 2010 landslide GOP majority and that led them to be complacent.
The Dems have taken a proactive approach to this midterm election. Some have looked to distance them- selves from President Biden who has extremely low approval ratings and others have looked to change their policy to better reflect their constituents and their beliefs. However, far too many GOP candidates are once again running on the coat- tails of Former President Trump and his beliefs rath- er than looking to change the way the party is per- ceived. Their over reliance on Trump and the GOPs failure to move away from him and his influence is turn- ing what could have been a landslide into a very close race. The GOP needs fresh ideas and even more than that they need a fresh face.
On top of that, the Dems are gaining momentum nationwide due to the national issue regarding abortion after the overturning Roe v. Wade over the summer. Six months ago, predictions pointed towards a landslide “Red Wave”, but a lot can change in six months when it comes to opinions and favorability. Furthermore, the raid on Mar-a-Lago has riled up Trump supporters.
The House will likely still flip to the GOP this term; however, lots will have to change if they look to repeat their predicted success. The Dems are moving a new direction, and the GOP has to do the same if they want to have any chance of flipping congress as a whole and winning back the presidency. Trump’s name doesn’t hold the same weight anymore and the GOP needs a new front man, polls are proving that, and if the GOP remains complacent, the elections will too.