The midterm elections were far from the red-wave republicans than even I expected. The failure of pundits and commentators alike to accurately predict this election was a far surprise. Republicans lost Senate races in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada and Arizona with Wisconsin Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson pulling a tight victory. Additionally, Georgia is poised for an upcoming runoff a loss for Republicans. The house is not much better, Republicans barely took the majority with several key incumbents losing their races. Kevin McCarthy, the republican leader, may not even become Speaker with the caucus in free-fall. Republicans are divided now when unity is needed with many pointing fingers to each other following the defeat.
So why did Republicans underperform in the midterms? Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell summed it up “Canidate quality” republican candidates were abysmal. Candidates in swing such as Mehmed Oz, Karia Lake, Adam Laxalt etc. all promoted Donald Trump’s 2020 election lie, which turned off moderate voters. Additionally, the pessimistic outlook of these candidates of doom and gloom read more as fire and brimstone sermon than a political speech. It is important to remember that Ronald Reagan the great communicator championed a sunny optimism with a few dad jokes to win voters. Politicians usually win on hope and change not doom and gloom, the Republican message and was clearly off in these races.
However, on a brighter side for Republicans there were some key victories. The Sunshine state was a dramatic win for Republicans. With Governor DeSantis winning reelection by 20 points a wide margin and republicans scoring several. Our very own Empire state also saw republican gains flipping 4 seats. Lee Zeldin coming within 5 points of Governor Kathy Hochul a great showing for Republicans. The victories in Florida and New York are valuable lessons when assessing the midterms for Republicans. Running moderate mainstream Reaganite Republicans in New York who focused on local bread and butter issues is a winning strategy.
So, what does this midterm election mean for the Republican party? The key takeaway is the underperformance of Trump election denying candidates in swing states while other Republicans had a strong showing. Governor Ronald DeSantis has never looked better, a landslide victory in Florida while Trump affiliated candidates failed, strengthens his hand.
The Governor’s chance of defeating Trump in a Republican primary has dramatically increased. This election validated DeSantis’s potential candidacy for the Presidency while weak- ing Trump’s hand. Thats the critical conclusion one which could change the trajectory of the 2024 Presidential election.