On Ukraine’s war with Russia, how will it end? Last week, The New York Times published an article that saw Chinese President Xi Xing Ping cooking pancakes with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This publication fueled ongoing conversations about the relationship between these two nations. Many in the Western World fear that a budding alliance between China and Russia could create the preconditions for another world war – one that resembles World War I, where alliances between nations drag them into a war that would surely leave all parties devastated. So how will the war between Ukraine and Russia end? This is a million-dollar question.
It’s been over a year since Russia launched its attack on an unimposing Ukraine. In February of 2022, President Putin authorized missile strikes and tactical deployments throughout Ukraine, displacing thousands of families – many of whom doubted the severity of the threats from Russia prior to their invasion. Last spring, while studying abroad in Vienna, our group had the opportunity to listen to the story of a man who saw missiles sail through the air above his home. He explained to us that because tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been high for years, most Ukrainian citizens never expected an escalation of the conflict to this degree. But in the days following the first missile strikes, the highways were locked bumper-to-bumper by hundreds of thousands of people fleeing for their lives. Many displaced by this war were embraced by communities throughout socially democratic European states like Austria and Germany. However, they still lack a sense of stability and certainty central to our existence in everyday life. You could argue that Ukrainian citizens have been living in uncertainty since the beginning of the conflict with Russia.
The modern-day conflict between Ukraine and Russia began in 2014 when Ukraine’s pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown by a pro-Western government following widespread protests. When this new pro-Western government took power in Kyiv, Russia refused to acknowledge its legitimacy. President Putin, fearing the advancement of Western interests near Russia, elected to annex Crimea, which was originally part of Ukraine along the Black Sea. The Russian military took control of key government buildings, airports, and military installations, and held a referendum in which the majority of the Crimean population voted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. Fast-forward nearly ten years, the conflict has been characterized by numerous ceasefire agreements (which have been repeatedly violated), thousands of casualties, and the displacement of millions of people, while also straining relations between Russia and the West.
There is no clear end in sight. The situation remains volatile, with both sides continuing to engage in skirmishes and bolstering military buildups along the border. It appears that Russia will not stop until Ukraine concedes some of its eastern territories, demilitarizes, and swears never to pledge fealty to the European Union. I believe that what President Putin truly wants is the reassurance that pro-Western interests will not threaten his power. The European Union has slowly but steadily expanded eastward since the fall of the Berlin Wall, bringing more Eastern European countries into the fold. Putin despises the fact that increasingly more post-Soviet countries are succumbing to pro-Western democratic ideals and values. He once said that “the breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century.” Thus, I believe that he will stop at nothing to reassert dominance over any and all post-Soviet nations.
Belarus (a long-time ally of Russia), for example, just agreed to house some of Russia’s nuclear weapons by the summer.
In order to find peace in this conflict, it is my belief that the United States should offer humanitarian aid and relief to Ukrainian refugees and open its doors to accept them. We should offer them housing, and educational opportunities, and help them reestablish a sense of community that has been taken from them. I do not think, however, that it would be wise to stoke the fire and further enrage an already crazed Russian President who touts his nuclear arsenal far too often. Perhaps we should focus on strengthening our relationship with China and creating solidarity within the international community. We cannot tolerate Putin’s actions, but we need to find ways to peacefully de-escalate the conflict before it’s too late.