From Oral Roberts making the Sweet 16 as a 15 seed, Oregon State winning the Pac-12 tournament and going all the way to the Elite 8, UCLA’s shocking Final Four run, and Gonzaga going undefeated all year only to be dominated by Baylor in the National Championship game, last year’s college basketball season was full of surprises. The 2021-22 season begins on Tuesday, Nov. 9 with the Champions Classic matchups of Kentucky vs. Duke and Kansas vs. Michigan State, both tipping off from Madison Square Garden. It should be another great year with a ton of interesting storylines soon to emerge, and here I’ll give you my bold predictions for the season.
The Bonnies Make the Final Four
St. Bonaventure had a great 2020-2021 season, going 16-5 with a pandemic shortened schedule and winning the A-10 Conference Tournament. They received a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but got a tough draw against 8-seed LSU and lost to them in the first round. All five starters for the Bonnies were juniors last year and they return all of them, including two preseason A10 first team selections in Kyle Lofton and Osun Osunniyi.
Additionally, they will get some much-needed depth this year, as they’ve added transfers Abdoul Karim Coulibaly from Pitt and Quadry Adams from Wake Forest, as well as a freshman point guard from the Netherlands named Joryan Saizonou who could make an immediate impact. This team has loads of experience, and will be battle tested going into the NCAA Tournament as their non-conference schedule is full of with matchups against Power Conference teams. I expect St. Bonaventure to have a great regular season and ride this momentum into tournament, making a run all the way to the Final Four.
Gonzaga Doesn’t Make the Sweet 16
After falling to Baylor in last year’s championship game, Gonzaga, while losing two stars in NBA lottery picks Corey Kispert and Jalen Suggs, return key players in veterans Anton Watson, Andrew Nembhard, and Drew Timme, and also added an immediate impact transfer in Iowa State’s Rasir Bolton. If that wasn’t enough, the Bulldogs added two five-star freshman guards in Hunter Sallis and Nolan Hickman, as well as the number one overall recruit in the country: versatile 7’0” center Chet Holmgren.
As you can see this prediction is certainly bold, as this loaded Gonzaga team enters this season as the consensus top team in the country and most people’s preseason pick to win it all. However, I expect them to struggle with a common problem for teams with this much talent; there’s only one ball. With so many talented guys who can make plays with the ball in their hands, there could be some serious chemistry problems, as Mark Few may struggle to get his guys to share the ball and coexist together to keep everyone happy. Additionally, Gonzaga’s biggest flaws last year was their defense in the paint and their rebounding. The Bulldogs’ frontcourt of Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren are both weak defenders, and with a very lean frame the 190-pound Holmgren may have a tough time adjusting to the size and strength of opposing centers.
Gonzaga starts off the year with a loaded non-conference schedule but then could get too comfortable once they get into their weak West Coast Conference schedule, and I predict this will lead to an early exit in the NCAA Tournament.
Duke’s Paolo Banchero wins Wooden Award
While Chet Holmgren has captured a lot of attention as the top ranked freshman recruit in the nation, the number two player in the 2021 class and current favorite to be the number one overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, Duke’s Paolo Banchero, has flown slightly under the radar. Banchero has shined thus far in the preseason, and shown flashes of why he could be one of Duke’s best freshmen ever. The 6’10, 235-pound power forward will be a matchup nightmare for opponents, as with his size and strength he will be too big for guards and small forwards, yet with his ability to shoot from the outside and take defenders off the dribble to the rim centers and power forwards won’t be able to guard him either.
As evidenced by the success of Zion Williamson two years ago, Coach Mike Krzyzewski is not afraid to run his offense through a freshman, and he will do just that with Banchero. I expect Banchero to have a monster season, lead Duke back to a top seed in the NCAA Tournament, and win the John R. Wooden Player of the Year Award given to the best player in all of college basketball.
Auburn Wins the SEC
The SEC has the potential to be the best conference in college basketball this season, and with five teams ranked in the top 25 in Kentucky (10th), Alabama (14th), Arkansas (16th), Tennessee (18th), and Auburn (22nd), it’s easy to see why. While most of the preseason hype has surrounded Kentucky Alabama and Arkansas, my pick to win the SEC Regular Season and SEC Tournament is Auburn. This team is just two years removed from making the Final Four and being a questionable foul call away from making the National Championship, so the postseason experience is there.
Led by a top-tier coach in Bruce Pearl, the Tigers have brought in loads of new talent, adding five star-star power forward Jabari Smith as well as transfers Walker Kessler and K.D. Johnson. Guard Allen Flanigan, their top returner and the second highest-ranked returning player in all of college basketball, will be out the first few months of the season, but when he returns this team will get even better. Watch out for Auburn to surprise a lot of people and win the SEC this season.
The Texas Longhorns Win the 2021-22 National Championship
This Texas team is one of the most fascinating teams I’ve seen in my time watching college basketball. After being upset as a 3-seed in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament to 14-seed Abilene Christian, Texas fired coach Shaka Smart and lost four key contributors who all averaged over 8 points per game. However, following this disappointing end to the 2020-21 season, they reloaded in a big way.
First, they lured Chris Beard away from rival Texas Tech and hired him as their new coach. In his introductory press conference Beard promised to build a championship contender as soon as possible, and he made good on his promise by signing six of the top 30 transfers in the nation to join returning starters Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramsay. The most intriguing of these transfers is point guard Marcus Carr, who averaged 19.4 points per game last season at Minnesota and is expected to be one of the top players in the nation this year.
Some might be concerned about how all this talent will function as a unit, and that is where Beard comes in. At Texas Tech, Beard used transfers to reload after losing four starters from his 2018 Elite Eight team, and in 2019 Tech made it all the way to the National Championship game and lost in OT to Virginia. With his share-the-ball, motion offense and aggressive defensive system Beard is the perfect coach for the roster he has constructed, and I predict Texas will be cutting down the nets on April 4, 2022 as National Champions.