MLB Playoff Picture and Prediction
As the Major League Baseball season nears completion, the focus of many baseball fans has now shifted from the dog days of August to the playoff races of September. In both the American and National League, teams are fighting and clawing their way down the home stretch of early fall baseball.
For those who need a brief description of the MLB playoff format before I give my analysis and predictions, here you go:
Major League Baseball consists of 30 teams, 15 in each league (American and National), divided up into three even subdivisions per league (East, Central and West). Six teams from both the American and National league make the playoffs every year, the best from each league of course playing each other in the World Series. Each division winner has an automatic bid to the postseason, while the other remaining clubs compete for what is called the “Wild Card,” of which the next best three teams make.
As of Wednesday, Sept. 18, the races for the respective divisional crowns are pretty much over, as every division leader has at least a three-game lead. In the American League, the Yankees are up on the Orioles by four games in the East, the Guardians lead the Royals by five in the Central, and the Astros also lead the Mariners by five in the West. As for the National League, the Mets trail the Phillies by eight in the East, the Brewers hold a whopping 10 game lead over the Cubs in the Central, and the West is a little closer but the Dodgers still cling to a healthy 3.5 game lead over the Padres (.5 game differences occur when teams haven’t played the same amount of games). While any baseball fan will tell you that these races can never be counted early, I would be shocked if any division leaders change in the next week or so before the regular season ends.
The Wild Card races, on the other hand, are still totally up for grabs, and the winners probably won’t clinch their spot until the last few days of the season. In the American League wild card hunt, six teams are realistically alive. The three teams that hold the spots at the moment are the Orioles, Royals and Twins. While Baltimore has the toughest remaining schedule in the entire AL, I don’t see them losing their first place wild card position. The Royals, who hold the second place wild card, don’t have a tough remaining schedule and I see them holding onto the two seed. The Twins are the team to keep the biggest tabs on. They have the fifth hardest remaining schedule in the American League, and they play Baltimore and Boston before the season ends. A bad stretch vs. those teams and they could find themselves on the outside looking in. The Tigers are the ones currently on the outside, but they have the 28th easiest remaining 11 games in the whole league. They have been hot as of late, winning eight of their last 10, and they are only a game and a half back of the Twins for the final playoff spot. I think that given their easy schedule and the Twins recent struggles – a 4-6 record in their last 10 games – Detroit will take that sixth and final playoff spot and usurp the Twins. The Mariners, who find themselves three games back, have to deal with games vs. the Yankees and Houston before they finish. It is not totally over yet, but it is getting too close for comfort for Seattle fans. Seattle has underperformed expectations this year, as their best player, Julio Rodriguez, has not been as great as many have hoped. Don’t count on seeing the M’s in the dance. Finally, Boston seems to be done, being five games back with 11 to play is a tough feat for any team. Come back next year, get Duran a tennis racket, and tell him to watch his mouth.
In the National League, only four teams are realistically fighting for the three elusive spots. The Padres hold the best record of the four, they sit pretty at 2.5 games up. They have the 25th easiest remaining schedule in the league, and I have them holding onto that first place wild card. The Mets and Diamondbacks hold the last two NL wild card spots respectively. While the Mets hold the tiebreaker over Arizona, they have an absolute gauntlet of a last 10 games as they have the hardest remaining schedule in the entire league. New York hosts the division leading Phillies for four games at home before three games in Atlanta against the Braves, and then three more in Milwaukee against the Central leading Brewers to finish the season.