President Trump’s accusations regarding Iran’s role in the attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities continued in his speech at the 2019 United Nations General Assembly.
Trump explained the U.S.’s desire for peace and international cooperation and emphasized his focus to put U.S. interests first. Iran poses a threat to security, and “the regime’s record of death and destruction is well known to us all,” said Trump.
As of 1979, U.S. foreign policy in relation to Iran has been aimed towards preventing the nation from gaining too much power.
“The US had a long-lasting policy of ‘oil denial,’ which intends to prevent any one country to have dominance in the Middle East,” stated Assistant Professor in International Relations at St. Lawrence University Mert Kartal. “That is, a too powerful Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc. would not be desirable for the US.”
Iran followed multilateral diplomatic approaches prior to the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. During his speech, Trump referred to the sanctions placed on Iran by the U.S. following the withdrawal.
“The Trump administration’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the deal in mid-2018 seems to have reduced Iran’s incentives to comply,” stated Professor Kartal.
In his speech, President Trump explained more economic sanctions were placed on Iran in response to the attack.
“We just imposed the highest level of sanctions on Iran’s central bank and sovereign wealth fund,” stated President Trump.
In addition to the Trump administration, the United Kingdom, Germany and France blame Iran for the attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Furthermore, the United Kingdom is considering participating in the US-led military effort in the Gulf.
Pressure from the Trump administration influenced the support of these three nations.
The speech also garnered a response from Iranian officials. “Solution to this deficiency: mustering will to forge independent path, not parroting absurd US claims and requests INCONSISTENT with JCPOA,” tweeted Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.
It is unlikely that the Trump Administration will publicly attack Iranian facilities due to lack of support from the “US Congress and electorate, and it would be difficult to justify these extreme actions in the eyes of the international community,” stated Professor Kartal.
Another option is Trump convincing members of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, to reprimand Iran for the attacks.
“This is more likely because of the U.K., France and Germany’s support and because of Prime Minister Boris [Johnson]’s statement,” said Professor Kartal.
“There’s one guy who can do a better deal and one guy who understands how to get a difficult partner like Iran over the line and that is the president of the United States,” stated Prime Minister Johnson.
Trump could also bring the attack on Saudi oil facilities to the attention of the UN Security Council and suggest a solution to punish Iran.
However, “it would be unrealistic to expect any of these countries to be willing to take part in any proposal that might eventually be used by the U.S. to legitimize some extreme action against Iran,” said Professor Kartal.