Syria continues to be the epicenter for conflict and geopolitical gamesmanship. On November 24, Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 jet that Turkey has accused of violating its airspace. As noted by Politico and others, this is the first time in fifty years that a NATO member country has taken action against the Russian Air Force. The ongoing air fight in Syria this fall is also the first time since World War II that NATO and Russia have shared the same airspace.
In October, Turkey warned Russia of consequences after Russian jets violated Turkish airspace. The warning was followed by an October 5 statement from NATO about the “dangerous level” of Russian engagement in Northern Syria and violations of Turkish sovereignty. According to Turkish officials, on the morning of the 24th a plane whose nationality, they say ,was unknown at the time violated Turkish airspace bordering Northern Syria. An official statement from the military stated that the pilot was warned “ten times within five minutes” and when they refused to leave the airspace “two F-16 planes… intervened…in accordance with the rules of engagement at 9:24 a.m.” The US military confirmed that they heard the ten warnings given by Turkish military officials and heard no Russian response.
One pilot was killed by the crash, the second survived, and a third Russian involved died as part of the rescue mission. The pilot was killed by gunfire from the Free Syrian Army as he was parachuting to the ground, according to the Wall Street Journal. The Free Syrian Army is an opposition group operating in Northern Syria. They are also responsible for shooting down the Russian helicopter that flew in to rescue the pilots, which caused the second casualty.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was visibly furious in addressing the incident, calling it “a stab in the back” by “the accomplices of terrorists.” The Russian government has released their own findings saying the Russian Su-24 never violated Turkish airspace and was always within the Syrian border. Per The Economist, Putin went on to say that the Turkish government is protecting Daesh (commonly known as the Islamic State or ISIS). He also stated, per CNN, that the reason for shooting down the plane was to protect trade routes that Putin said move illegal oil from Daesh territories into Turkey on “an industrial scale.”
While Russia accuses Turkey of assisting Daesh, Russian airstrikes have hit a strip of land called Rojava that is inhabited by Syrian born Turks. According to VICE, the border area is home to the Syrian Turkmen Brigades. These militia groups are supported by Turkey and trained by their Special Forces but condemned as terrorists by Russia. The international community has criticized Russia for not focusing on the Daesh, but instead going after other groups they label as terrorists, such as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades.
The downing of the Russian Su- 24 also has implications for other heads of state attempting to cooperate with Russia. NATO called an emergency meeting immediately after the incident to prevent any further escalation. Barack Obama accused Russia of straying from its stated mission of destroying Daesh and instead striking what he called “moderate opposition forces.” French President Francis Hollande has attempted to de-escalate the situation as he seeks Russian and US cooperation to strike Daesh following the November 13 Paris attacks that left 129 dead. The current climate talks at COP21 in Paris will provide a place for meetings between the involved countries. President Obama stated Tuesday morning at COP21 that Turkey had the right to defend itself but that tensions should be deescalated and that a solution is needed.
Russian President Tayyip Erdogan and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated they did not plan to further inflame the tensions. The Economist commented on both Putin and Erdogan’s nationalistic leanings and said they would both likely flex their strategic muscles in the near future. It remains to be seen if Erdogan will make good on his threat, or if the conflict can be limited to this singular incident.