Tuesday night, Ted Cruz (RTexas) picked up a crucial win in the Wisconsin primary and walked away with 36 of the states 42 delegates, per Politico. Analysts and political pundits saw the state as critical in the plan for Cruz to deny Trump the necessary 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the Republican nomination before the National Convention in Cleveland in July. Per The New York Times, Trump will now need around 60 percent of all remaining delegates in order to secure the nomination. Looking ahead, here are some updates on the candidates as well as what could happen as we approach the convention.
Trump accuses the GOP: Trump released a lengthy campaign statement Tuesday night after his loss in Wisconsin, calling Senator Cruz “Lyin’ Ted” and accusing the Republican party of attempting to block his nomination through super-pacs and other means. This follows articles by Politico and others claiming that the national Trump operation is “in disarray”, having just fired its top data operative and pulling out of key general election battleground states like Florida and Ohio. Trump can now look ahead to New York where he leads by a sizeable margin, however expect the attacks against the establishment GOP to continue as Trump is taking his loss in Wisconsin quite poorly and is known to lash out at media and the party after his losses. He needs to draw attention away from recent gaffes, including his comments on abortion, his campaign manager’s criminal charge for simple battery and his feud over his wife and Ted Cruz’s wife’s physical appearance.
Calls on Kasich to drop out: Both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump have said that the Republican Party should not allow John Kasich (R-Ohio) on the ballot at the convention since he has no reasonable chance to secure the nomination. Kasich has won only one state, his home state of Ohio, and has come in third in most of the following contests. Rubio and Bush voters have not rallied around him as he had hoped, however, Kasich is openly angling for a contested convention where he believes he could end up the party’s nominee. Trump said in statement on the campaign trail that Kasich is taking votes from him, not Cruz, and that Kasich “shouldn’t be allowed to run,” per The Huffington Post.
Ted Cruz, the great unifier: Cruz was ridiculed for quoting John F. Kennedy in his victory speech after Wisconsin and has now pivoted his approach to claiming he can unify the Republican Party. Cruz has repeatedly lambasted the establishment for not listening to its base, however, now he seems to be reaching out to that establishment as he senses weakness in Trump’s isolationist approach. Cruz picked up two more congressional endorsements in Wisconsin and has the backing of Governor Scott Walker (R-Wisconsin) as well Lindsay Graham (R-South Carolina). Although certainly not their first choice, the more conventional wing of the GOP is seeing Cruz as the most viable alternative to the “Trump Train” that they so desperately want to avoid.
A contested convention: If Trump fails to reach 1,237 delegates, he said he firmly believes the candidate with the most delegates should get the nomination and warned in recent weeks of “possible riots” if he is denied the nomination. However, the rules of the convention make that unlikely, as the vote will move onto a second ballot where many of the delegates can switch their allegiances. Ted Cruz is already working on delegates in North Dakota and other places, trying to pry them away from Trump, per Politico. Both candidates Trump and Cruz have said they will attempt to put their own supporters on the rules committee at the convention in order to deny Kasich a place on the 2nd ballot. Things will surely get messy as a contested convention floor flight will reveal the lengths that the party is willing to go to deny Trump the nomination. This could spur an angry Trump to run as a third party, potentially taking millions of votes away from the GOP and all but assuring a Democratic victory in November.
Where does Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) fit into this? In recent days reports coming out of Capitol Hill, word is that top-ranking GOP officials will angle to get Paul Ryan to run on the ballot in the event of a contested convention. Once the first ballot at the convention fails to produce a nominee, anyone can put their name in the ring and run for the nomination. Many in the GOP establishment see Ryan, the current speaker of the House, as a choice who could defeat Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders come November as he has a strong moderate conservative voting record, is well-liked by the establishment and outsiders and has general election appeal. The Speaker said he has no interest in running for president, and RNC Chair Reince Preibus has said, “Our candidate will be someone who is running.”