2026 Oscar Nominations: Who was Snubbed, Should & Will Win
Another new year means another new season for film and television awards. As always, this year’s award contenders offer a new perspective on the modern-day film industry. On Jan. 22, this year’s Academy Award nominations, better known as the Oscars, were announced. To no one’s surprise, there are both upsetting and uplifting revelations.
To begin, I believe there were no major surprises in this year’s nominations. No, I did not predict Delroy Lindo’s role in “Sinners” taking over Paul Mescal’s spot for “Hamnet”, but it did not come as a huge shock. Lindo deserves the nomination for the charisma, humor and sincerity he brought to the role (and it helps to make up for his snubbed performance in Spike Lee’s “Da 5 Bloods”).
However, neither role compares to the two current Best Supporting Actor frontrunners: Sean Penn in “One Battle After Another” and Stellan Skarsgård in “Sentimental Value.” Frankly, Penn should run away with the award. Although Skarsgård has the most “Oscar-worthy” performance – the subtlety, the charm, the depressive sincerity – Penn is a wholly a different human being in “OBAA” – the walk, the talk, the “I’m not gay, if that’s what you’re saying.” Not since Jessica Gunning in “Baby Reindeer” have I seen such a disturbingly intense performance committed solely to make the viewer keel over in a puddle of “bleh.” He’s a guy you just want to watch, to really eye each of his movements because there’s subtlety in how outlandish he is.
“Hamnet” as a whole has been showing noticeable signs of public exhaustion since its wide release in November. Jessie Buckley continues to lead the charge for the Best Actress award, after winning the same category at both the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. Her Oscar nomination comes with earnest cause; her performance is heartbreaking and loud with as much subtlety as a smashed red tomato on a forest green canvas – in the best way possible. Buckley will have a hundred other performances throughout her career that could win; she’s been hidden in the muck of indie darlings for years, and I’m personally thrilled she’s finally getting her due respect. Buckley’s eventual win will be proper justice for her underappreciated role in “Wild Rose.” Rose Byrne’s performance in “If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You” is similarly hard to look away from, but it hasn’t received enough popular credit to be in contention. Although she could be the surprise win of the night.
As for the other two acting categories, I can see Ethan Hawke in “Blue Moon” winning a “career Oscar,” given his 30+ years without an Oscar. It also helps that “Blue Moon” may be his best role since “Boyhood.” Otherwise, it’s Timothée Chalamet’s award all day. “Marty Supreme” has taken both social and critical approval by storm, and it could stand as the greatest fad of the year. In a year or two, the movie may be panned as a piece of dated dopamine filler, but right now, Chalamet deserves to win. Plus, similarly to Jessie Buckley, Chalamet will have a hundred other roles that will be nominated and win him an Oscar; he’s the modern-day Marlon Brando.
The Best Supporting Actress nominations are a little less straightforward. Amy Madigan in “Weapons” and Teyana Taylor in “One Battle After Another” have the audience’s approval, but Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in “Sentimental Value” has the critics in awe. As someone who didn’t adore the Norwegian-produced drama, I love Lilleaas. She quietly steals each of her scenes without giving away too much about her character; it’s all in her reactions.
Now, I’ll speed run the other awards. Best Director will go to Paul Thomas Anderson for “One Battle After Another.” Not only has he never won one of his 14 nominations, but the film also has the best vision and direction of the picks. Best Cinematography is easily “Train Dreams.” For a film that was snubbed in the performance categories, the Academy should at least get this correct. Best Editing should be “Sinners,” although it will likely be close with “Marty Supreme”; the same theory goes for the newest category in Casting.
Best Costume Design shouldn’t go to any of the nominees. “Wicked: For Good,” while not being anywhere near one of my favorites, deserves at least some recognition for the technical work done. Abhorrent decision, I believe. Best Makeup and Hairstyling should be awarded to “Frankenstein” because, once again, “Wicked” is nowhere in sight.
Best Score and Original Song should both go to the works from “Sinners,” but “Golden” from “KPop: Demon Hunters” will likely take away Best Original Song thanks to its sheer global popularity. Likewise, Best Sound should go to “Sinners.” I have heard some arguments for the sonically extreme “Sirat.”
Best Animated Feature will, unfortunately, go to “KPop: Demon Hunters,” with little love going to “Arco” this year. I cannot properly speak on Best International Feature because I haven’t yet seen “The Voice of Hind Rajab” or “Sirat,” but my early pick is “The Secret Agent” (yay, Wagner Moura on the Golden Globes win!).
Quicker speed run! Visual Effects: “Avatar: Fire and Ash.” Adapted Screenplay: “One Battle After Another,” with much love towards “Train Dreams.” Original Screenplay: “Sinners,” with a strong argument for “Marty Supreme.” Documentary: “The Perfect Neighbor.” Documentary Short: “All the Empty Rooms.” Live Action Short: sike, haven’t seen any of them. Animated Short: “Retirement Plan” or “The Girl Who Cried Pearls.”
Now, Best Picture. It’s “One Battle After Another.” It’s loud, brash and stretches a totally unfamiliar feeling for almost three hours without ever becoming tiring. I still believe “Sinners” is the Movie of the Year (with a capital “M”), but it’s a strong race between the two that “OBAA” will ultimately come away with.