Josh Allen is back:
Going into this season it was expected that Josh Allen would lead a high-powered Bills offense and have another huge year of fantasy success. In most drafts he was routinely taken in the fifth or sixth rounds as one of the first quarterbacks off the board, showing the high expectations fantasy managers had for him. However, through the first two weeks he had been simply mediocre, totaling a pedestrian 33.86 points and three touchdowns. Unfortunately, for anyone who played against him this week this all changed in week three, as Allen exploded for 358 yards passing and five total touchdowns for 37.22 fantasy points, more than he scored in the previous two weeks combined. This performance was against a solid Washington Football Team defense as well, and with a much easier matchup against the Texans coming up in week four, look for Allen’s fantasy success to continue.
Injuries having a major impact:
Two weeks of the season Christian McCaffrey was on pace for another great fantasy year, making his owners, most of whom used the number one overall pick on him, very happy. However, just as Christian McCaffrey went down with an injury in week three last season, he exited this year’s week three matchup against the Texans with a hamstring strain and has been ruled out for week four. We’ll see how long this injury will last, but for now Chuba Hubbard is a must-add in all formats and CMC owners will have a big hole to fill on their rosters. Additionally, top Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown left his week three game with a hamstring strain, and it remains to be seen how long he will be out for. Although he did not have as much success as McCaffrey in the first two weeks, he is still expected to be a WR1 and this injury could be a serious setback. In his absence, look for Julio Jones to return to 2019 form and Derrick Henry to continue to put up huge numbers.
Stay Away from Rookie QBs:
Wow. What was recently heralded as one of the best rookie QB classes in years has had an awful start to the 2021 season, and week three was more of the same. Mac Jones had the best day out of the bunch, which isn’t saying much as he scored 11.6 points with 270 yards and a touchdown while throwing three interceptions. In the Jaguars week three loss to the Cardinals, Trevor Lawrence threw for 219 yards and a touchdown, but was picked off multiple times for the third week in a row and also lost two fumbles, putting his point total at 7.46 for the week. Impressively, Zach Wilson and Justin Fields managed to do significantly worse than the other two, with Wilson putting up 160 yards and no touchdowns with two interceptions for 2.6 points, and Justin Fields having 68 yards passing and no touchdowns for 3.92 points (Hey, at least he didn’t have any interceptions though). None of these rookies should even be rostered in the vast majority of leagues, and you would be crazy to even consider starting them.
Week 4 Boom/Bust
QB Boom: Tom Brady
Tom Brady has been as brilliant as ever to start the 2021 season, and he’s been playing more like he’s 24 than 44 so far. With a highly anticipated return to New England in week four, expect Brady to be out for revenge and put up huge numbers in this one
QB Bust: Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson has been below average throwing the ball so far this year and has relied on his legs to generate the bulk of his offensive output. Facing an upstart Broncos team in week four that has allowed the fewest yards per drop back and will have Von Miller chasing him around all game. Expect Jackson to have a rough week
RB Boom: David Montgomery
Along with pretty much every other Chicago Bear, David Montgomery had an awful week three and put up a mere 7.5 points, disappointing many of his fantasy owners, including myself. However, he has been the clear lead back in Chicago and has received almost all the carries, targets, and offensive snaps, so expect him to have a huge day in week four against a weak Lions defense that has struggled against the run.
RB Bust: Dalvin Cook
Cook was inactive for the Vikings week three win due to an ankle injury, and right now is questionable for Week 4 but expected to play. If he plays, expect him to have a bad fantasy week. Coach Mike Zimmer will likely ease him back from injury by giving Alexander Mattison some carries, and the matchup against a strong Browns front seven led by Myles Garrett won’t do him any favors.
WR Boom: Stefon Diggs
Diggs has been mediocre so far this season, and Week 3 was especially disappointing as the Bills offense exploded and it seemed like everyone was getting in on the action except for Diggs. However, he has still be receiving a huge share of targets, and with this volume likely to continue against a weak Texans secondary Diggs should feast.
WR Bust: Tyler Lockett
Lockett was on an absolute tear over the first two weeks, but came back to earth in week three and only put up 7.3 points while his teammate DK Metcalf shined with 22.7 points. I expect this trend to continue in week four, as Lockett has been too reliant on big plays and has received a smaller overall target share than Metcalf.